Running into the New Year

All hail Janus, the Roman god of doors, gates and transitions. For Romans, the two-faced Janus represents a middle ground between the beginning (life) and the end (death). January, a month dedicated to this god also rings in a time of reflection and planning for the year ahead. New Year’s resolutions as we know them today, (d)evolved from Roman practice to promise Janus that one would be better in the new year than they had been in the past.

According to the Pew Research Center, almost one-half of Americans (46%) make their own New Year’s resolutions each year. If you’re reading this, there’s a fair chance that you’ve added a running resolution or goal to yours. “Exercising more” and “eating healthier” are predictably ever-present on the list of most frequent resolutions, and their recurrence hints at how challenging these particular resolutions are to keep.

You’re not alone.

Old Janus must be pretty disappointed, because our resolutions overwhelmingly fail. According to academic research on the topic, fewer than half of resolutions are still continuously successful by April and by June, success rates may be as low as 6 percent. One way to corroborate these numbers is with market data. For example, gym memberships unsurprisingly spike right after New Year’s Day, yet analysis of cellphone data and Foursquare check-ins suggests gym visits start to decline significantly by the third week of January. After eight months, around half of the new members have stopped going entirely.

This time of year is also when the fitness industry ramps up its advertising and reaps the benefits. In a survey of nearly 6,400 fitness clubs across the U.S., the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association found that 10.8 percent of all gym membership sales take place in January, which is proportionally more than any other month that year.

Run and done.

Analyzing Strava data suggests that Americans are most likely to give up on their fitness resolutions as early as mid-January.

Comparing the number of activities for Monday, January 1, to the average uploads of the previous four Mondays, for example, reveals a large spike in activity on the very first days of the new year. In the following days, Strava data shows average and lower-than-average activity levels.

So, when do people start abandoning their resolutions?

Strava calculates it to be the third Thursday of January, or the 16th of January this year. That is the average first day of the year that their analysis saw activities dip below the four-week average. Strava have attributed this drop in activity to a loss of motivation.

Sticking to your New Year’s resolutions.

One piece of advice worth keeping in mind comes from the Stanford behavioral scientist BJ Fogg, in his book Tiny Habits. Fogg shows that to build good new habits — the key to a successful resolution — we need to reduce, implement, and celebrate. That is, reduce new behaviors to something small and manageable, like committing to start by doing two push-ups a day if you are out of shape (not 100); finding where in your routine the new behaviors fit best and then celebrating each day after practicing the behavior.

Learn how to change your behavior in 2 mins and 30 seconds with BJ Fogg.

Closing thoughts.

New Year’s resolutions have always been a tricky thing to keep, and not entirely through any fault of our own. January is arguably one of the hardest months to make such a commitment. Days are short and temperatures can be frigid. Evolutionarily speaking, that means our natural instinct is to shelter, eat more — and make excuses to try again tomorrow.

Don’t be so hard on yourself. You can’t get yesterday back but you still have today. So, layer up appropriately, ease into it, and enjoy the ride. We’ll see you out there! Ilan & Stephen